COLLEGE STATION — A “very unusual alignment of factors” means Texas could have an unusually large cotton crop that coincides with high prices in the market, according to a Texas AgriLife Extension Servicecotton expert.
“A lot of years, we don’t have that,” said Dr. Randy Boman, AgriLife Extension cotton specialist based in Lubbock. “It could mean substantial (positive) economic impact for growers in the High Plains and the rest of the state.”
Other major cotton producers such as Pakistan have not been so fortunate, he said. Widespread flooding in Pakistan and increased demand by China are driving prices up.
Boman is responsible for helping cotton producers throughout the High Plains part of Texas, a region that typically produces about 60 percent of the state’s cotton.
And this year, that 60 percent may represent as 3.78 million acres planted, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture-National Agricultural Statistical Service.
“As of this time, NASS is saying 3.645 million acres are still standing,” Boman said. That’s only a little over 100,000 acres lost, and that’s pretty phenomenal. Typically we’re a much higher abandonment-area.”
That 100,000 acres represents about a 3.6 percent abandonment rate, Boman said. A more common abandonment rate for the High Plains is about 15 percent. In 2009, there was a 25-percent abandonment. In 2008, the abandonment rate was about 40 percent due to drought.
That’s the key to the prediction of outstanding production this year. Though some fields, particularly those dryland cropped, may not yield well, the low abandonment rate in the High Plains and the rest of the state spell a very good year, he said.
The NASS forecast for the state is 8.8 million bales for the state, with a little under 6 million bales predicted for the High Plains area, Boman said.
Of course, as it always is in agriculture, things are not rosy for everyone, he said. Dryland cotton was hurt in too much rain, roughly about 15 inches over the July 4 weekend in some High Plains counties. Many areas, particularly lower-lying dryland areas, were set back.
“It’s going to be interesting to see,” Boman said. “I’m always a little more negative on this crop than I ought to be, because I get calls from guys who having a lot of grief rather than the guys who are making really good yields,” he said. “The big issue is dryland yields. We really needed a rainfall event across the dryland areas last week to keep things on track.”
Boman also noted that harvest is a long ways off.
“And as large as it is likely to be, unless we have some outstanding open weather, like a repeat of 2007, we could be harvesting very late this year.”
Some of the large gins around that could be ginning as late as May, he said.
CENTRAL: Continuing extremely dry conditions took a toll on pastures and livestock. Much of the region’s corn showed high aflatoxin levels. Nursing cows’ body condition scores decreased as forage quality dropped. Hay production slowed without rain to initiate growth for another cutting. Grasshoppers remained a problem. Armyworms hit Bermudagrass fields.
COASTAL BEND: Hot, dry weather continued with highs close to 100 degrees. In the southern part of the region, cotton bolls were opening, and producers defoliated earlier planted fields. Some cotton was being harvested with good yields reported. There was some severe boll rot where fields remained wet. The corn harvest wound down with good yields reported. Some sorghum with sprouted heads was left in the field. Rice yields were below expectations because of rain during pollination and bacterial panicle blight. Sesame began to mature. Hay harvesters worked full-tilt as it became dry enough to cut and bale. Some producers reported record hay yields. Though heat stress has been rough on livestock, body condition scores were kept high due to abundant forages.
EAST: Dry conditions persisted with daytime highs more than 100 degrees, which largely put grass growth on hold. Armyworm and grasshopper infestations put a further load on forage supplies. Some counties reported making second and third treatments for armyworms. Producers were trying to harvest hay wherever possible. In some places, such as Trinity County, there were very few areas that received enough rain throughout the summer to produce more than one hay cutting. Grass fires were becoming more frequent in the drier counties.
FAR WEST: Scattered rainfall fell across the region with accumulations of 0.5 inch to 4 inches. The pecan nut drop was low, but the amount of pecans for an “off” year was considered average. Cotton was looking better than normal, still blooming with low-insect pressure from lygus and bollworm. Chiles were developing pods. Alfalfa is growing and getting ready for the fifth cut.
NORTH: Hot, dry weather prevailed across the region and the 100-degree plus temperatures took their toll on crops and pastures. Soil-moisture levels ranged from short to very short, with a couple of areas having adequate soil moisture. Some areas reported three- to six-inch-wide cracks in the ground. Even where there were scattered showers, soils quickly dried out from the heat. The continued heat is also impacted forage production. The corn harvest was under way, and hay production was ongoing. Growers were trying to get a little more production their hay meadows. In some areas, corn and sorghum were harvested as silage. There have been several reports of armyworms. Livestock were in fair to good condition but showing signs of stress from the extreme heat. Corn was in fair to good condition. Producers started harvesting early maturing soybeans, and the crop was reported to be in fair to good condition. Sorghum was in good condition. Cotton was in poor to good condition, and peanuts were in very poor condition. Rice was in fair condition.
PANHANDLE: The region was hot and dry, with temperatures above average in the triple-digit zone. Isolated thunderstorms brought some hit-and-miss showers, as well as a few incidences of small hail. Moisture accumulations ranged from a trace to up to 4 inches, while some counties were left high and dry. Producers continued to prepare fields and fertilize for wheat planting in the fall. Most corn was in good condition. Spider mites were reported in some corn fields. Cotton was fair to good in most areas. The extreme heat caused irrigators to pump a lot of water. Pastures were reported as doing very well in some areas and showing signs of heat and moisture stress in others. Cattle were in fair condition.
ROLLING PLAINS: The region’s cotton crop was blooming or setting bolls and mostly in good condition. Some producers began irrigating. Hay was being cut and baled. Dickens County authorities decided to fund their predator control program for another year, hoping to help reduce the number of feral hogs that are destroying crops. In Foard County, a few farmers were planning to plant canola, a first for the county. Growers were cutting and baling sudan grass throughout the region, with most reporting good yields. Pastures were showing moisture stress for the first time this summer. The dry, hot weather has caused worry about wildfires as many pastures were overgrown. Although there was still a lot of grass, its nutritional value is rapidly declining as it matured. Despite these negatives, livestock generally remained in good shape. Some cattle showed signs of stress from high day and nighttime temperatures. In Montague County, grasshoppers were eating up pastures, armyworms were becoming active and there were reports of cattle dying from prussic acid. Yields of late-season peaches and melons were above average and of excellent quality.
SOUTH: The region had extremely hot temperatures with a few spotty showers. Topsoil-moisture levels in fields and pastures dropped rapidly as did stock-tank water levels. Soil moisture ranged from adequate in the eastern, western and southern parts of the region, to short in the northern part of the region. Ranchers were providing modest amounts of supplemental feed. Cattle body condition scores remained good. In the northern part of the region, cotton bolls were open, corn and sorghum were being harvested, and peanuts were pegging. In the eastern part of the region, the harvest of small grains was wrapping up, the cotton harvest began, and the corn and sunflower harvests were ongoing. In the western parts of the region, corn and sorghum had to be heavily irrigated. Pecans and cotton crops also needed irrigation. In the southern part of the region, the sorghum harvest was winding down, while the corn and cotton crop harvests were very active. Producers were also harvesting hay. Some flooding remained along parts of the Rio Grande River.
SOUTHEAST: In Montgomery County, armyworms were widespread. The region saw a few isolated showers but there was not accumulation to improve soil-moisture levels. Some hay fields were cut early before armyworms could invade. The rice harvest was ongoing. Producers were harvesting hay. The condition of cattle improved in some due to better pasture conditions.
SOUTH PLAINS: Temperatures were in the mid-to-upper 90s with from 0.5 inch to 3 inches of rain. Soil moisture was short to adequate. Corn was in good condition and continued to mature. Cotton was in good condition, with most fields having reached cut-out, the growth stage prior to boll fill. Growers were monitoring mites in some cotton fields. Irrigation was ongoing. Grain sorghum was in good condition, ranging from mature to boot stage. Peanuts were in good condition with some signs of pod rot. Pastures and rangeland were in good condition, and livestock were in good to excellent condition.
SOUTHWEST: Rainfall was above average from September through early July, but the region was beginning to get dry. By mid-August, cumulative rainfall was 90 percent of the long-term average. Winds and daytime highs topped 100 degrees. The Edwards Aquifer authority issued water-conservation alerts. Corn, sorghum, peanuts and most spring vegetable crops were finished growing. Cotton was also close to the end of its growing season. The corn and sorghum harvest was about 70 percent complete. Pecans, peanuts, cotton, pastures and rangeland continued to make progress, but growth slowed due to the drier conditions and high temperatures. Forage availability still remained above average for this time of the year.
WEST CENTRAL: Extremely hot, dry conditions continued, rapidly depleting soil moisture. Cotton was progressing well. Producers were harvesting forage crops and seeing above-normal yields. Insect problems increased. Wheat producers prepared fields for fall planting. The area’s small acreage of peanuts continued to look good. Rangeland and pastures were showing signs of heat and moisture stress. Stock-tank water levels were dropping. Livestock remained in good condition. Pecans were in good condition. Growers continued irrigating.
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